If any one wants me, I'm in the pub! This is it then, at SportTrades we predict a 3-0win to England.
Article taking in full from our friends John Ley and Jeremy Wilson at the Daily Telegraph.
A match that almost certainly amounts to a play-off for qualification into the last 16, with Slovenia having the advantage of knowing that they would progress should there be a draw.
Slovenia have outperformed England in the most recent history of their respective matches against Algeria and the United States, but the longer term form says that Fabio Capello’s team should prevail.
Matthew Upson will start in defence for England following injuries to Rio Ferdinand and Ledley King as well as the suspension of Jamie Carragher, while Slovenia are waiting on the fitness of centre-back Marko Suler.
Key Clash
Frank Lampard v Robert Koren: Two midfielders with proven quality in front of goal. Koren, who is a free agent after being released at the end of last season by West Bromwich
Albion, scored Slovenia’s winner against Algeria and has a respectable strike-rate of a goal every five games throughout his club career. Lampard has comfortably bettered that ratio both for club and country but his most recent England goals only came last September.
Touchline duel
Fabio Capello v Matjaz Kek: As in every department, England have a huge theoretical edge in the dugout. Whereas Capello has managed with distinction in Italy, Spain and now England, Kek has never worked outside Slovenia.
Kek won two Slovenian league titles with Maribor before coaching the Under-15 and Under-16 national teams. He was then made Slovenia manager in 2002 and has overseen what is already their most successful ever World Cup campaign.
Talking tactics
Slovenia tend to employ a straightforward 4-4-2 formation and can be expected to defend in two fairly rigid banks of four. How Fabio Capello sets his team up to counter that style is one of the big debates, with Jermain
Defoe and Peter Crouch potential options to replace Emile Heskey. The more radical solution is to play Wayne Rooney in the role he performs for Manchester United as a lone striker, with Steven Gerrard behind. This would also open up a space for Joe Cole on the left of midfield.
Fabio Capello
"After this game we have no more chances. We have to win. The results have not been good, but I haven't seen the right spirit on the pitch for 90 minutes, only for five or six minutes. I hope in the next game the spirit I saw in qualification will return."
Matjaz Kek: "Any national teams knows it is an honour to play England and it’s no different for us. After all, football was invented there. It’s a great stage to present and promote our beautiful country."
Teams
Slovenia (4-4-2): 1 S Handanovic; 2 Brecko, 4 Suler, 5 Cesar, 13 Jokic, 17 Kirm, 8 Koren, 18 Radosavljevic, 10 Birsa; 9 Ljubijankic, 11 Novakovic
Substitutes: 12 J Handanovic, 16 Seliga, 3 Dzinic, 6 Ilic, 19 Filekovic, 22 Mavric, 7 Pecnik, 15 Krhin, 20 Komac, 21 Stevanovic, , 23 Matavz, 14 Dedic
England (4-4-2): 1 James; 2 Johnson, 15 Upson, 6 Terry, 3 A Cole; 16 Milner, 8 Lampard, 14 Barry, 4 Gerrard, 10 Rooney, 19 Defoe
Subs: 12 Green, 5 Dawson, 9 Crouch, 11 J Cole, 13 Warnock, 16 Milner, 17 Wright-Phillips, 20 King, 22 Carrick, 23 Hart, 21 Heskey
Referee: Wolfgang Stark (Germany).
Slovenia (Fifa ranking 25):
Injured: Pecnik (ankle)
Suspended: None
One yellow card: Suler, Cesar, Jokic, Kirm, Radosavljevic, Komac
England (8):
Injured: King (groin)
Suspended: Carragher
One yellow card: Gerrard, Milner
Previous meetings
Played: 1 Slovenia 0, Draws 0, England 1
2009: (London, friendly): England 2 Slovenia 1
Fact: The good news is that England have had 33 shots, the fourth best at the World Cup. And Slovenia have just 14 – the fewest in the competition.
Prediction: After the dismal draw Algeria, England are becoming desperate – and may struggle to get anything more than a draw.
Group C scenarios
England victory
If England win they qualify for the next round.
If USA beat Algeria by the same goal margin as England beat Slovenia then England will qualify in second place and face Group D winners on Sunday afternoon.
If England win by a better goal margin than USA, or USA do not beat Algeria, England will qualify as group winners and face Group D runners-up on Saturday night.
England defeat
If England lose they are out of the World Cup
England draw
If England draw, they cannot win the group. If USA also draw, England would qualify only if they score three more goals than the USA (eg Slovenia 3 England 3, USA 0 Algeria 0).
If the USA draw 0-0 and England 2-2, Fifa would have to draw lots to decide who goes through. The draw would happen at 6pm.
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